Impact of International Trade On Economic Growth: The Granger Causality Test Approach

International Journal of Accounting and Management Sciences (IJAMS)
Vol1 No.2 October 2022

DOI https://www.doi.org/10.56830/NUCB7716

Authors

Sule Magaji
Mansur Mohammed Abubakar
Yusuf Abdullahi Temitope

Abstract

The study analyzes the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria.
The study’s specific objectives were used to achieve this, which is to investigate the impact of
Nigeria’s trade openness on the country’s economic growth; to examine the extent to which
trade balance has an impact on economic growth; and to find out how exchange rate affects
economic growth. The time series data used for this study was sourced from CBN 2021.
Using Granger Causality test it indicates that trade balance does not Granger cause real gross
domestic product at 5% level of significance. It also indicates that the degree of trade
openness does not Granger cause real gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. The
regression result shows that trade is not statistically significant to economic growth. Also,
the result shows that trade openness is not statistically significant to economic growth. It is
recommended that there is need for effective foreign exchange management capable of
ensuring optimal productivity in the critical sectors of the economy. This can be achieved by
diversification of the economy away from oil with a view to expanding export of non-oil
goods and services to strengthen naira exchange rate under the managed float regime.
Keywords: International Trade, Economic growth, Trade openness, Granger Causality test,
Foreign exchange, Economic diversification

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